Elon Musk Goes All In On Trump, and Predicting the 2024 Election, with Nate Silver, Bethany Mandel, and Karol Markowicz | Ep. 860
10Digest
The episode begins by introducing Nate Silver, a renowned statistician and election forecaster, and delves into his journey from professional gambler to political prognosticator. The conversation then shifts to Elon Musk's recent interview with Donald Trump on X (formerly Twitter) and the subsequent backlash from European authorities, who threatened Musk with potential arrest for hate speech violations. The hosts explore the clash between American and European free speech interpretations and the hypocrisy of those advocating for censorship. The episode dives into the current state of the 2024 presidential election, analyzing the latest polls and predictions. Nate Silver's forecast gives Kamala Harris a slight edge over Donald Trump, but the conversation emphasizes the close nature of the race and the potential for shifts in momentum. The hosts discuss the topic of college protests and whether universities will enforce existing rules regarding attendance and academic requirements for protesting students. They argue that colleges should hold students accountable for their actions, drawing a comparison to Singapore's strict enforcement of laws. The conversation shifts to the performative nature of many protests, highlighting the hypocrisy of students who claim to care about certain causes but don't actively support them in other contexts. Douglas Murray's criticism of this behavior and his outspokenness against anti-Semitism are discussed. The hosts discuss Douglas Murray's book that predicted the problems Britain would face and how his accurate predictions have made him a target of the British left. They express concern about the lack of free speech protections in the UK and advocate for Murray's potential move to the US. A clip of Douglas Murray is played where he expresses his opposition to illegal immigration and argues that those who dislike a country should leave. He criticizes those who come to a country under false pretenses and then try to undermine it. The hosts discuss Kamala Harris's stance on Israel and her support for open borders. They express concern about her potential policies and the potential for violence and unrest in the US if open borders continue. The hosts discuss Tim Walls's association with Imam Assad Zaman, a pro-Hitler imam in Minnesota. They question whether Walls was properly vetted for the vice presidential nomination and express concern about the Democratic Party's apparent lack of due diligence. The hosts discuss the Democratic Party's apparent anti-Semitism and Kamala Harris's response to protests against Israel. They criticize her statement that she understands the protesters' emotions, arguing that it is inappropriate for a potential president to sympathize with those who are attacking a close ally. The hosts discuss Glenn Close's attack on JD Vance, the author of "Hillbilly Elegy." They criticize Close for her hypocrisy, considering her role in the film adaptation of the book and the awards she received for it. The hosts discuss Michael Steele's defense of Kamala Harris's lack of media appearances. They criticize Steele for his hypocrisy and argue that Harris should be held accountable for her silence. The hosts contrast JD Vance's willingness to engage with the media with Kamala Harris's avoidance of it. They express hope that Harris's lack of transparency will eventually hurt her campaign.
Outlines
Nate Silver's Background and Election Forecasting
The episode introduces Nate Silver, a renowned statistician and election forecaster, known for his accurate predictions. The conversation delves into Silver's journey from a professional gambler to a political prognosticator, highlighting his unique skillset and the evolution of his career.
Free Speech and Censorship: Elon Musk, Donald Trump, and the EU
The discussion shifts to Elon Musk's recent interview with Donald Trump on X (formerly Twitter) and the subsequent backlash from European authorities, who threatened Musk with potential arrest for hate speech violations. The conversation explores the clash between American and European free speech interpretations and the hypocrisy of those advocating for censorship.
2024 Election Predictions: Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
The episode dives into the current state of the 2024 presidential election, analyzing the latest polls and predictions. Nate Silver's forecast gives Kamala Harris a slight edge over Donald Trump, but the conversation emphasizes the close nature of the race and the potential for shifts in momentum.
College Protests and Enforcement of Rules
The discussion begins with the topic of college protests and whether universities will enforce existing rules regarding attendance and academic requirements for protesting students. The hosts argue that colleges should hold students accountable for their actions, drawing a comparison to Singapore's strict enforcement of laws.
Performative Protests and Douglas Murray's Criticism
The conversation shifts to the performative nature of many protests, highlighting the hypocrisy of students who claim to care about certain causes but don't actively support them in other contexts. Douglas Murray's criticism of this behavior and his outspokenness against anti-Semitism are discussed.
Douglas Murray's Influence and the UK's Free Speech Climate
The hosts discuss Douglas Murray's book that predicted the problems Britain would face and how his accurate predictions have made him a target of the British left. They express concern about the lack of free speech protections in the UK and advocate for Murray's potential move to the US.
Douglas Murray on Immigration and Open Borders
A clip of Douglas Murray is played where he expresses his opposition to illegal immigration and argues that those who dislike a country should leave. He criticizes those who come to a country under false pretenses and then try to undermine it.
Kamala Harris's Stance on Israel and Open Borders
The hosts discuss Kamala Harris's stance on Israel and her support for open borders. They express concern about her potential policies and the potential for violence and unrest in the US if open borders continue.
Tim Walls's Association with a Pro-Hitler Imam
The hosts discuss Tim Walls's association with Imam Assad Zaman, a pro-Hitler imam in Minnesota. They question whether Walls was properly vetted for the vice presidential nomination and express concern about the Democratic Party's apparent lack of due diligence.
The Democratic Party's Anti-Semitism and Kamala Harris's Response to Protests
The hosts discuss the Democratic Party's apparent anti-Semitism and Kamala Harris's response to protests against Israel. They criticize her statement that she understands the protesters' emotions, arguing that it is inappropriate for a potential president to sympathize with those who are attacking a close ally.
Glenn Close's Attack on JD Vance
The hosts discuss Glenn Close's attack on JD Vance, the author of "Hillbilly Elegy." They criticize Close for her hypocrisy, considering her role in the film adaptation of the book and the awards she received for it.
Michael Steele's Defense of Kamala Harris's Silence
The hosts discuss Michael Steele's defense of Kamala Harris's lack of media appearances. They criticize Steele for his hypocrisy and argue that Harris should be held accountable for her silence.
JD Vance's Media Appearances and Kamala Harris's Lack of Transparency
The hosts contrast JD Vance's willingness to engage with the media with Kamala Harris's avoidance of it. They express hope that Harris's lack of transparency will eventually hurt her campaign.
Keywords
Nate Silver
Nate Silver is a renowned statistician and election forecaster known for his accurate predictions, particularly his successful prediction of the 2008 presidential election winner in 49 out of 50 states. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, a website that provides data-driven analysis of politics, sports, and culture.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk is a South African-born entrepreneur and businessman known for his ventures in technology, space exploration, and electric vehicles. He is the CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, and X (formerly Twitter), and his outspoken views on free speech and technology have often sparked controversy.
Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris is the current Vice President of the United States and a former Senator from California. She is the first woman, first African American, and first Asian American to hold the office of Vice President. Harris is considered a progressive Democrat and is running for president in 2024.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump is a former president of the United States and a Republican politician. He is known for his controversial statements and policies, and his presidency was marked by political polarization and social unrest. Trump is running for president again in 2024.
Free Speech
Free speech is a fundamental right that allows individuals to express their opinions and ideas without fear of censorship or reprisal. It is a cornerstone of democracy and is protected by the First Amendment to the United States Constitution.
Censorship
Censorship is the suppression of speech, public communication, or other information that may be considered objectionable, harmful, sensitive, or inconvenient to the governing body or other controlling entity. It can take many forms, including banning books, blocking websites, and restricting media coverage.
Douglas Murray
A British author, journalist, and commentator known for his outspoken criticism of political correctness, identity politics, and anti-Semitism. He has written several books, including "The Strange Death of Europe," which argues that Europe is undergoing a cultural suicide.
Open Borders
A policy that allows people to freely cross national borders without restrictions. The hosts express concern about the potential consequences of open borders, including increased crime, terrorism, and strain on social services.
Performative Activism
Actions taken for the purpose of appearing to be politically engaged or socially conscious, rather than for genuine belief or commitment. The hosts criticize the performative nature of many protests, arguing that they are often driven by status and social approval rather than genuine concern for the issues.
Q&A
How did Nate Silver transition from a professional gambler to a political prognosticator?
Nate Silver's background as a professional gambler provided him with a unique skillset in analyzing probabilities and making predictions. He applied this expertise to the political arena, developing models to forecast election outcomes.
What are the key differences between American and European interpretations of free speech?
American free speech laws are generally more robust and protective of individual expression, while European laws often place stricter limitations on speech deemed offensive or hateful. This difference is evident in the EU's concerns about Elon Musk's platforming of Donald Trump on X.
What are the key factors influencing the current 2024 presidential election race?
The 2024 election is shaping up to be a close contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Factors influencing the race include the state of the economy, the candidates' policy positions, and the impact of cultural issues on voters.
What is the main argument made by the hosts regarding college protests?
The hosts argue that colleges should enforce existing rules regarding attendance and academic requirements for protesting students, holding them accountable for their actions. They believe that failing to do so sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the integrity of education.
How does Douglas Murray's criticism of performative activism relate to the discussion of college protests?
Douglas Murray's criticism of performative activism, where people claim to care about certain causes but don't actively support them in other contexts, aligns with the hosts' concerns about the hypocrisy of many college protesters. They believe that these protests are often driven by status and social approval rather than genuine concern for the issues.
What are the hosts' concerns about Kamala Harris's stance on Israel and open borders?
The hosts express concern about Kamala Harris's potential policies regarding Israel and open borders. They believe that her support for open borders could lead to increased crime, terrorism, and unrest in the US, and they are critical of her apparent lack of support for Israel.
Why do the hosts criticize Glenn Close's attack on JD Vance?
The hosts criticize Glenn Close for her hypocrisy, considering her role in the film adaptation of "Hillbilly Elegy" and the awards she received for it. They believe that her attack on Vance is motivated by political correctness and a desire to maintain her standing within Hollywood circles.
What is the hosts' main criticism of Michael Steele's defense of Kamala Harris's silence?
The hosts criticize Michael Steele for his hypocrisy, arguing that he is defending Harris's lack of media appearances while simultaneously criticizing Donald Trump for his media interactions. They believe that Steele is simply trying to protect the Democratic Party and its nominee.
Show Notes
Megyn Kelly is joined by Nate Silver, author of "On the Edge," to discuss his exit from ABC's FiveThirtyEight last year, how ABC didn't understand the value of the product, FiveThirtyEight's projections this year that overweighted Biden's chances, the challenge of seeing something you built turn into something you don't support, the excitement and opportunity in independent media, how he got into politics through gambling, how his election forecast considers all different polls, why Kamala Harris is currently leading, why Trump could still be the better bet to win, what's likely to happen in the final months of the election, Elon Musk's shift to conservative and supporting Trump as president, Silver's own political point of view as a moderate liberal and whether his position will evolve more in the future, the value of risk-taking, what poker tells us about the world, and more. Then Bethany Mandel and Karol Markowicz, authors of "Stolen Youth," join to discuss the massive conversation on X Spaces between Musk and Trump, some on the left calling for Musk to be censored and even arrested over his comments and platforming, the prescriptions for how Trump and his campaign need to get back on track, why he should focus on policies that resonate with swing voters and independents, questions about his COVID policies and his VP JD Vance's media tour, the threats against Douglas Murray for making honest comments about the rise of radical Islamists in Europe, the anti-Jewish Imam associated with Democratic VP pick Tim Walz, the anti-Israel college student protests starting again soon, Glenn Close's gross comments about Vance, and more.
Silver- https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/
Mandel-https://x.com/bethanyshondark
Markowicz- https://x.com/karol
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